NFL Week 11 odds picks Dolphins keep win streak alive vs. Broncos Packers upset Colts

Week 10 was a nightmare. Favorites went 9-5 against the spread, and while that may not sound surprising, favorites have covered just 44 percent of the time this season! A healthy dose of my picks have been centered around underdogs every week, so I'm looking to move on as quickly as po sible from last Sunday. As far as some of the favorites I mi sed, I was shocked that and the gave the a close game and that the football gods still support the . Did you see the monsoon that started when was trying to orchestrate a game-winning drive? And did you see how the weather cleared up as soon as Chris Paul Jersey the final whistle blew? Ridiculous! We have some pretty intriguing games this week, as the look to avenge their lo s against the last month, and the are forced to take on a divisional opponent without . Below I will give you my top five picks, followed by the rest of the bunch. Let's go ahead and jump in. All are via William Hill Sportsbook. Top five picks record: 24-25-1 Overall ATS record: 78-62-5 Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS) Depending on where you grabbed the Texans last week against the , they are either 1-8 against the spread this Mikal Bridges Jersey season, or 2-7 against the spread. To be honest, I think Houston's 2-7 straight-up record is not indicative of how competitive they have been this season, but this specific matchup is rough. New England leads the NFL in rushes per game (33.4) and rush percentage (52%), while Houston's defense ranks last in yards allowed per rush (5.2) and rush yards allowed per game (167.4). The Patriots are ineffective when it comes to pa sing the ball, so they rely on the ground game. Unfortunately, as the stats indicate, the Texans can't stop the run. Projected score:Patriots 27-24 Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS) Don't look now, but the Dolphins are on a five-game win streak. Three of those are thanks to their rookie quarterback , who is also 3-0 against the spread since taking over for . The Dolphins have only been favored twice under Brian Flores, but have covered both times! As for the Broncos, is banged up and threw four interceptions against the last week, as the Broncos lost by 25 points. The second-year quarterback has struggled as of late, as he ranks in the bottom two in completion percentage, pa ser rating and interception rate this season. If I had to choose a lock of the week, it's probably the Dolphins. Projected score:Dolphins 28-20 Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS) The Chargers are 0-3 against the spread since starting 5-1 this season. Additionally, all seven of their straight-up lo ses have come by one po se sion, which has them on-pace to lead the NFL in one-po se sion lo ses for the second straight season! After their 29-21 lo s to the Dolphins last week, rookie quarterback decided to stop me sing around and make a change. Major news out of Los Angeles: Justin Herbert CUT HIS HAIR(via ) Pick Six Podcast (@picksixpod) Make all the jokes you want about his haircut, but to me it signals that he's all Ricky Rubio Jersey about busine s now. Last week, he became the first rookie quarterback in NFL history to record two or more pa sing touchdowns in six straight games, and he leads all rookies Elie Okobo Jersey with 19 touchdown pa ses. The Jets are winle s for a reason, and are 2-7 against the spread. is starting this week, so I think the Chargers can win with ease. Projected score:Chargers 30-17 Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox) The Packers did let me down last week, but they are 10-0 against the spread following their last 10 against-the-spread lo ses. Green Bay is 7-2 overall, and tied for third in the league with a 6-3 record against the spread. They have just found ways to win this season, and the fact that they are underdogs in this matchup makes me want to pick the Packers even more. Under head coach Matt LaFleur, the Packers are 5-1 against the spread as an underdog and are 2-0 against the spread as underdogs this season. exploited Green Bay's run defense a couple of weeks ago, but Indianapolis has the No. 20 rushing offense in the league. Projected score:Packers 31-26 Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN) The last time the Buccaneers hosted a primetime game, it didn't go so well. A couple weeks ago, Brees and the Saints blew out the Bucs, 38-3. However, and Co. were able to rebound in Week 10, as they registered a dominant 46-23 victory over the . Brady has only faced the Sean McVay-led Rams once in his career -- and that was in Super Bowl LIII. Brady and the Patriots won 13-3, and covered the two-point spread. There's no doubt this Rams team is very sound on both sides of the ball, but Tampa Bay averages about six points more than L.A. per game, and the Buccaneers appear to be more than motivated to prove on a national stage that they are indeed a legitimate contender. Projected score:Buccaneers 30-24 Cardinals (+ Kelly Oubre Jr. Jersey 3) 35-31 over Seahawks Panthers (-3) 28-24 over Browns (-3) 24-20 over (-10) 33-21 over Jaguars (-6.5) 28-21 over (+1) 27-26 over Washington Saints 31-28 over (+5) 30-24 over (+7) (-6.5) 35-28 over Raiders
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